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Recently, venture capitalist Deedy Das wrote on X, sparking widespread resonance: "This is the beginning of the third major decline in the history of computer science. If you majored in computer science during the last downturn, your life is doing pretty well now. I suspect history is repeating itself today."
This comment was directed at an in-depth report titled "The Hottest College Major Hit a Wall. What Happened?" published in The Washington Post on April 13.
The article notes that from 2008 to 2024, the number of computer science degrees awarded by four-year U.S. universities grew approximately fivefold, with a growth rate more than double that of the second-ranking major, exercise science.
However, in the fall of 2025, the number of computer science majors at four-year universities dropped by 8.1%—the largest single-year decline for any major since at least 2020 when records began, causing computer science to fall from fourth to sixth place in the national major rankings.
Nobel laureate in Economics and MIT professor Simon H. Johnson recently stated publicly that AI has "largely eliminated" the prospect of programming as a reliable career path. The Atlantic declared bluntly: "The Computer Science Bubble is bursting."
Two Previous Major Declines in History
This is not the first time the computer science major has experienced such turmoil.
First Decline: 1984–1994
In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the advent of the Apple II and IBM PC brought personal computers into ordinary homes for the first time. Enrollment began to climb sharply from that point, peaking around 1984, followed by a years-long contraction. By 1994, the annual output of computer science degrees had fallen by roughly 42% from its peak.
However, the root cause of this decline was not a loss of student interest, but rather that universities lacked sufficient faculty to accommodate these eager young learners.
Starting in 1984, most computer science departments were forced to cap enrollment, directly leading to the decline in degree output in subsequent years.
Second Decline: 2001–2007
The dot-com bubble brought a second boom. From 1997 to 2003, the number of computer science graduates grew at an average annual rate of 15%.
After the bubble burst in 2001, students began to retreat, and enrollment in computer science slid downward for several years.
More paradoxically, the tech industry had actually fully recovered around 2004, with hiring back on track, but student enthusiasm for the major did not reignite until after the 2007 financial crisis.
Another anxiety circulated during this downturn: Would all software development jobs be outsourced to India? This worry is structurally identical to today's panic about "AI stealing programmers' jobs."
The Third One Arrives: This Time, AI is the Lead Actor
Data from the National Student Clearinghouse shows that for the 2025–2026 academic year, the number of computer science majors at four-year U.S. universities fell by 8.1%. A survey of 133 universities by the Computing Research Association also showed that 62% of responding institutions reported a decline in computer science enrollment. The University of California system saw its first decline in computer science enrollment since the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
New York Fed data for 2025 indicates that the unemployment rate for computer science bachelor's degree graduates has risen to 6.1%—the tech industry laid off over 150,000 people in 2024 and over another 100,000 in 2025, creating an oversupplied market where experienced developers compete directly with recent graduates for the few available positions.
The Washington Post report cited the story of Gavin O'Malley, a freshman from suburban Houston: When applying to college, he saw that only the best students in his class dared to apply for computer science and got cold feet. The memes and funny videos circulating on social media also made him somewhat self-conscious. Ultimately, he chose mechanical engineering at Rice University, partly because he wanted to "bypass the crowds in computer science."
However, the report also reminded readers that a significant portion of those "disappeared computer science students" have not truly left the field but have shifted to specialized majors such as data science, AI, robotics, and cybersecurity.
The University of California, San Diego is the only campus in the entire UC system that bucked the trend and grew, and it also happens to be the only school in the system that offers an undergraduate major in artificial intelligence. There are currently 193 AI undergraduate degree programs and 310 AI master's programs nationwide, with numbers continuing to grow.
The review article "The Outlook for Computer Science Education" in Communications of the ACM summarized the causes of this crisis: AI is being used as a reason to cut entry-level hiring; tech companies are undergoing massive layoffs amid economic uncertainty; and the inertia of universities expanding computer science enrollment between 2022 and 2023 pushed a large batch of graduates onto the market just as demand began to contract.
An anonymous computer science professor put it bluntly: "If you get a generic computer science degree from a typical university, the chances of finding a software job are much smaller than two or three years ago. Opportunities still exist, but they are reserved for the very best."
Decline, or Transformation?
History has repeatedly shown that the enrollment curve for computer science majors always follows the mood of the job market—sometimes overly optimistic, other times overreacting. What is different this time is that the penetration of AI into programming work is real, not a bluff.
The question is, will this completely eliminate the demand for software engineers, or merely change its content and level?
Tom Cortina, Associate Dean for Undergraduate Education at Carnegie Mellon University's School of Computer Science, said in an interview with The Washington Post that he feels the impact of AI but remains optimistic: "I think this is just a temporary dip."
Magdalena Balazinska, Dean of the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering at the University of Washington, worries not about a lack of people, but that "students are scared away by reading too much news about layoffs and AI taking jobs, even though they have a strong interest in computer science."
Gavin O'Malley, who chose mechanical engineering, gave this report an unexpected ending: The biggest reason he changed his major was not fear of AI, but "the competitive pressure was just too intense."
Gavin O'Malley ultimately chose mechanical engineering.
This statement, perhaps more than any macro data, reveals the essence of the problem: Computer science has been too successful over the past decade and more, so successful that it has turned itself into an overcrowded, brutally competitive race. AI merely pushed that pressure to a tipping point.
Engineers who truly understand AI and can collaborate with AI rather than be replaced by it will still be the most sought-after talent of this era. As for the enrollment numbers for computer science majors, they are ultimately just a barometer of market sentiment, not a final verdict on the quality of an era.
Reference Links
https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/computer-science-graduates-face-worst-job-market-in-decades
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3789677
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/06/computer-science-bubble-ai/683242/
https://x.com/deedydas/status/2046261675163316239
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/04/13/computer-science-major-ai/
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